Astrology and Astronomy

Astrology is pseudoscience. Astronomy is science. Let's start with that.

Before we get too down on astrology, let's remember that without astrology there would be no astronomy.  Let's also remember that early astrologers were trying to explain complex natural phenomena witht he tools they had. It just happens the tools were not sophisticate and ignorance was everywhere. So often pseudoscience gives birth to science.

Both astronomy and astrology after their own fashions predict the future. Let's look at some differences.

Astrology predicts the future
Without knowing, can you predict whose horoscope this is?

Aspects of your private life might be revealed to others in a public way today. In particular, others might learn how mystical you are or how interested you are in alternative, offbeat subjects. Hey, there’s more to you than just a pretty face.

What's your guess? There is a right answer.  Now, I don't know if this is going to come true, but whatever it is it sounds awfully vague. Who doesn't want to be mystical? People all over have legitimate mystical experiences every day. I can fully embrace this, since subjective experience is just that—subjective. Mysticism falls squarely inside of that. Who doesn't want to be interested in alternative, offbeat subjects? I know I am. Though I've already made that public. More than a pretty face? Well, again who wouldn't want to think that about themselves?

What I'm getting at is that the horoscope is vague. Really vague. What's more, this particular horoscope applies to every human born between July 23 and August 22 on the whole planet on 14 June 2012. How is this not immediately fishy? For those of you with the proper birthdate, tell me if your Thursday is like that.

Astronomy predicts the future too
But with a big difference. It is specific. Very specific. On 20 June 2012 at 23:09 UTC, summer begins. The north pole will point as far toward the sun as it gets. For those of us north of the equator, summer begins at that instant.

Now this sounds pretty mundane. In fact, I doubt anyone reading this doubts me for a second. If you doubt me though, you can make the measurements and verify what I've just claimed. And that is the key. In science, you can verify claims. You are encouraged to.

Science gives answers. Right answers. Specific answers. And if using the correct tools and methods you get a different answer, science has to change. If you get a wrong answer with pseudoscience, well, who knows? You didn't do it right. You didn't understand. You just didn't believe.

Take away
Both science and pseudoscience predict the future. Only one is right.

If the answer is vague or unspecific, you could be looking at pseudoscience. If the answer is given with overconfidence or shuns verification, you could be looking at pseudoscience. Exact answers (though sometimes within a range) that are verifiable are the hallmarks of science. When scientists don't know they say "I don't know." Or if they aren't sure—unlike my solstice prediction—they will give a range of possibilities. You might hear "within 15% of" to qualify uncertainties.

Pseudoscientists Charlatans may resist having their claims verified by the tools and methods of science. Or claim that it is beyond science. Scientists, though they may disagree about stuff where the details are being worked out, invite verification. It is at the heart of science.

Science literacy

Why I bring up science literacy
Last night I heard about Bikram yoga from a family member. To get you up to speed, it is a form of yoga that goes through a set of poses in an extremely hot room. Now, this sounds crazy to me, but who am I to stop an adult from doing what they want? In fact, I'm fine with people doing harmless, goofy things, since those are the sorts of things I enjoy. kP is 6.5 and the sun is down? Let's go out in the country and look for the aurora.

Where my eyebrow starts to twitch is when big claims are made: like the heat and the motion help work toxins out of your body. I don't like to cast stones, but when someone makes a claim they need to bring evidence. If you claim that yoga is generally good for you because is makes you mindful of your body or just gets you to start moving yourself, I'm fine. Or if you claim that yoga is part of a balanced exercise regimen, I'm fine. You've not claimed anything uncontroversial. Or at least you've not claimed anything that cannot be disproved, because it is subjective.

The instant you start telling me it removes toxins and boosts the immune system, I get skeptical. You have crossed the objectivity line. Since I can't help myself, I challenged the person telling me about the supposed benefits. She got quite upset that I dared to suggest that some of the benefits were hooey.

Do people have science literacy?
Clearly some of us do. It would have to be difficult to get any sort of college degree in science, engineering or math and not have a solid science literacy. But what about people who only have a high-school diploma. My wife and I were discussing this and have opposite opinions. She thinks no. I think yes.

On further reflection, my wife is right. The majority of adult Americans probably have little grasp on the principles of science. And why would they? I don't have a grasp on accounting beyond balancing a checkbook. I don't have a grasp on the law beyond basic behaviors—for example, don't steal or murder. Science is a professional pursuit that requires specialization.

On the other hand, failure to understand some of the basic principles of science can make you believe wacky things. Like alien abduction or detoxification*.

How do you get science literacy?
You can always hurry over to your local college and get a degree in one of the hard sciences. Or you can read this blog. To help remedy the situation, I'll post on this blog every Monday (at least over the summer) about science literacy. I'll give it a science literacy tag to help you sort it out from the other noise I may publish here.

See you next Monday.

*Note: I initially spelled "detoxification" as "detoxifiction." Freudian slip much?

Refinancing blues

I hate my house. Not in the sense of I hate its floorplan or neighborhood. I hate the financial dimension of it.

We had the exquisitely bad timing of buying very close to the peak of real estate prices. The price had been lowered on the house before we bought, and I think we offered slightly less than asking. At the time we thought it was expensive but as good as it was going to get. In the worst case prices would stay flat or rise very gently, so we'd be able to sell and get out. Right? We couldn't have been more wrong.

Prices have tanked nationally. Ours specifically has been falling at the rate of a decent used car every year. Our property taxes have gone up by about a car payment a month. Can you say negative net worth?

Which leads to a baffling question. For reasons that I won't get into, my wife is committed to refinancing this albatross of a house. So we are. Since the house is so far under water, the only lender we could get is our current mortgage holder. Ok, fair enough. Not a big deal. I'd rather it be otherwise, but that's life.

But here's the crazy part: refinancing would expose them to less risk. We actually want to shorten the term of the loan. Sure, it's risky loaning on a house as far under water as ours, but they're already exposed to the risk. We're talking about decreasing that risk. You'd think this would be a no-brainer.

But it isn't. They now need a mountain of paperwork to make this happen. IF it happens. I cannot wait to see how this plays out. I've got the popcorn ready for a good show.

Debunkery

There's something very satisfying about debunking pseudoscience. James Randi is the gold standard for exposing psychics, faith healers and their ilk. I bring this up because I ran across an article suggesting that Sanskrit isn't an Indo-European language. I call bullshit. And I'm super pleased since I get to do it from a position of [some] expertise.

But I'm nowhere near as good as Randi. Watch an expert at work. It's beautiful.

Blog ideas

I'm going to somewhat activate this blog. I'll write about whatever tickles my fancy until I find something that clicks with a non-bot audience. I'll try to make a point of it once a week over the summer. Then we'll tote up the ad revenue. Or anything else that tickles my fancy.

Things I might write about:
•Foreign movies that are better than anything on screen right now
•Tasty things
•My kids
•Stupid things in fashion and driving
•Lots of text, lots of it
•Maybe some cat videos, like this one—oh yes, cats with lightsabers

 You like this sort of stuff, right?

Anyway. Here are some things I won't be doing:

•Talking about my love of politics, because I have none

•Cooking my way through an obscure cookbook, though I'll take movie options

•Talking about grad school since I already to that over here.