11 June 2012

Astrology and Astronomy

Astrology is pseudoscience. Astronomy is science. Let's start with that.

Before we get too down on astrology, let's remember that without astrology there would be no astronomy.  Let's also remember that early astrologers were trying to explain complex natural phenomena witht he tools they had. It just happens the tools were not sophisticate and ignorance was everywhere. So often pseudoscience gives birth to science.

Both astronomy and astrology after their own fashions predict the future. Let's look at some differences.

Astrology predicts the future
Without knowing, can you predict whose horoscope this is?
Aspects of your private life might be revealed to others in a public way today. In particular, others might learn how mystical you are or how interested you are in alternative, offbeat subjects. Hey, there’s more to you than just a pretty face.
What's your guess? There is a right answer.  Now, I don't know if this is going to come true, but whatever it is it sounds awfully vague. Who doesn't want to be mystical? People all over have legitimate mystical experiences every day. I can fully embrace this, since subjective experience is just that—subjective. Mysticism falls squarely inside of that. Who doesn't want to be interested in alternative, offbeat subjects? I know I am. Though I've already made that public. More than a pretty face? Well, again who wouldn't want to think that about themselves?

What I'm getting at is that the horoscope is vague. Really vague. What's more, this particular horoscope applies to every human born between July 23 and August 22 on the whole planet on 14 June 2012. How is this not immediately fishy? For those of you with the proper birthdate, tell me if your Thursday is like that.

Astronomy predicts the future too
But with a big difference. It is specific. Very specific. On 20 June 2012 at 23:09 UTC, summer begins. The north pole will point as far toward the sun as it gets. For those of us north of the equator, summer begins at that instant.

Now this sounds pretty mundane. In fact, I doubt anyone reading this doubts me for a second. If you doubt me though, you can make the measurements and verify what I've just claimed. And that is the key. In science, you can verify claims. You are encouraged to.

Science gives answers. Right answers. Specific answers. And if using the correct tools and methods you get a different answer, science has to change. If you get a wrong answer with pseudoscience, well, who knows? You didn't do it right. You didn't understand. You just didn't believe.

Take away
Both science and pseudoscience predict the future. Only one is right.

If the answer is vague or unspecific, you could be looking at pseudoscience. If the answer is given with overconfidence or shuns verification, you could be looking at pseudoscience. Exact answers (though sometimes within a range) that are verifiable are the hallmarks of science. When scientists don't know they say "I don't know." Or if they aren't sure—unlike my solstice prediction—they will give a range of possibilities. You might hear "within 15% of" to qualify uncertainties.

Pseudoscientists Charlatans may resist having their claims verified by the tools and methods of science. Or claim that it is beyond science. Scientists, though they may disagree about stuff where the details are being worked out, invite verification. It is at the heart of science.

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